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2001 Oscar Picks

Well, it's that time of year again - one of my favorite times, in fact. The Oscars are officially upon us, and it's time for everyone to roll out their theories, their picks, and their "sure-things" about the ceremony. Who will win? Who will plummet to the infernal depths of their career afterwards? We find out this Sunday, but until then all us film geeks will have a lot of fun doling out our predictions. Here at TNMC, we have an Oscar Pool (thanks to my good pal Deadpool) where all us writers and our readers can compete against each other for fun and... well, fun, at any rate. If you'd like to join in, follow this link, http://moviegames.yahoo.com/oscars, register if you're not a member, and join a private group. The group ID: 3521. The group password: tnmc. Join up and good luck!

What follows are my personal predictions in categories with which I am familiar (having seen none of the live-action shorts, for example, I abstain from any predictions in that category). In each category, I will present the nominees in the order of their likelihood of winning, followed by my rationale, opinions and personal pick (which may not coincide with the favorite). The basis for my rationales is often complicated, based upon (in varying degrees): popularity, the careers of the people in question, Hollywood politics, Academy history and occasionally, just occasionally, my own personal opinion.

Let's get the show underway...

Best Actor:

1. Russell Crowe, A Beautiful Mind
2. Denzel Washington, Training Day
3. Tom Wilkinson, In the Bedroom
4. Sean Penn, I Am Sam
5. Will Smith, Ali

Let's start with the bottom, here. Will Smith is a popular celebrity, sure, and if Ali had been more successful or even just critically acclaimed this would have been enough. Since it was not, and the performance itself hardly received scores of accolades, he has the least chance of winning here. Only slightly above him here is Sean Penn's performance in I Am Sam, which is a long shot for several reasons. First, the movie wasn't very good. Second, Penn's performance wasn't very good (believe me, I HATE having to say that). Third, and just as important, Penn doesn't like the Academy Awards, doesn't go when he's nominated (this is his third time), and disapproves of Hollywood in general. Since Hollywood runs the awards, the only reason his chances are higher than Smith is the schmaltzy (read: Oscar-worthy) quality of I Am Sam.

Crowe and Washington are both favorites, and one of them will probably win... however, it is not certain. Crowe has been a downright pillock lately, roughing up Awards show producers, and the controversy over the biographical accuracy of his film could hurt his chances (as it almost certainly hurt Denzel's a few years ago when he was nominated for Hurricane, which had similar troubles). Denzel's performance was grand, but also villainous, which is rarely rewarded, and undeniably kind of two-dimensional. This is why, though Washington or Crowe will probably pick up the award, my personal vote goes for Tom Wilkinson's performance in In the Bedroom - his performance was the best of the lot, in my opinion, and voters will want to reward Bedroom in at least one category. I'm betting that a potential split between the favorites could work in his favor.

Best Actress:

1. Halle Berry, Monster's Ball
2. (tie) Nicole Kidman, Moulin Rouge/Sissy Spacek, In the Bedroom
3. Judi Dench, Iris
4. Renee Zellweger, Bridget Jones's Diary

Zellweger, the poor girl, gave a very nice performance in a very nice film, but it is far too slight a vehicle and a performance to win this award. Like Smith above, the nomination really is her reward. Dench? People love her, and she has a much bigger shot than our number four slot, but Iris hasn't received much of an Oscar push - a win, while possible, would be considered a major upset (and personally, I think she deserved a supporting actress nomination for The Shipping News more). This leaves us with a close three person race. Spacek and Kidman each have an equal shot at the gold - Spacek's was a "comeback" of sorts (a meaningless word, really, but voters love it), and this was the official starmaking year for Nicole. The problems? Nicole was most definitely nominated for the lesser of her performances this year (though if she wins, it will certainly be for both films), and Spacek's was not a particularly flashy performance. The biggest problem, however, is simply Halle Berry. A quality performance, a glamorous actress (whom the academy loves to reward in this category - Julia, Gwyneth, Helen, etc.), and, and I hate to say this, she's black.

An explanation - this is a banner year for black performers at the Academy. For the first time three persons of color have been nominated in the major acting awards, and on top of that, trailblazing Sydney Poitier is receiving a richly deserved lifetime achievement award. I'm sorry if it doesn't sound politically correct, but the Academy is going to want to reward at least one black person, and I think Halle is going to be it. Her performance was grand, and if she wins she will be the first black person to win in the Best Actress category.

It isn't the sole reason why she will win, but politics are a major factor in predicting the Academy Awards, and race is a major factor in politics. I know no one likes to talk about it, but it's true. She's my pick because she deserves the award, and has the politics to back her up.

Best Director:

1. (tie) Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings/Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind/Robert Altman, Gosford Park
2. Ridley Scott, Black Hawk Down
3. David Lynch, Mulholland Drive

First off, I know that the above rankings seem like a cop-out, but put simply? This is the closest race this year. Scott and Lynch are out of the running in spite of their quality work in Black Hawk Down and Mulholland Drive, respectively, mostly because these films were not nominated for Best Picture (although even if they were nominated, their chances would be slim). Peter Jackson would ordinarily be the prime contender because of the quality and grandeur of LOTR, as well as its great odds in the Best Picture category, but isn't the clear front runner. Both Howard and Altman have an equal chance in this category due to: 1) their careers (Howard has unjustly never been nominated and Altman has unjustly never won), 2) the quality of their films (Park and Mind are amongst their best work, most people agree), and 3) the Academy's recent tendency to reward different films in the Best Picture and Best Director categories. Films of seeming greater importance or complexity (Saving Private Ryan, Traffic) have recently been awarded this honor whilst more crowd pleasing fare (Shakespeare in Love, Gladiator) have won Best Picture. LOTR is the most crowd-pleasing of the Best Picture lot, Mind and Park are the most complex (arguably).

So these complex/important seeming films have at least an equal chance here, if history repeats itself. My bet is on Altman, whose film has a pretty slim shot in almost every other category and could have a career's worth of snubs on his side. The safer money is on Howard (crowd-pleasing movie) or Jackson (even MORE crowd-pleasing movie), though, so vote at your own risk.

Best Supporting Actor:

1. Sir Ian McKellan, The Lord of the Rings
2. Ben Kingsley, Sexy Beast
3. Jim Broadbent, Iris
4. Ethan Hawke, Training Day
5. Jon Voight, Ali

Put simply, Ali's chances are slim in every category, and the very small role of Voight's puts this one as a long long shot. Ethan Hawke is similarly unlikely, having the dramatic equivalent of a "straight man" role against Washington in Training Day. It's a great performance, but almost unnoticeable next to the star. Thus we're left with the three Brits. Broadbent would have been considered the darkest of horse, what with Iris's low visibility, until his unexpected win at this year's Golden Globes, which made him a somewhat more likely candidate. However, the winners of the Golden Globe in this category rarely correspond to the Academy Award winners (only two times in the last ten years - Benicio Del Toro and Martin Landau). Far more likely is Kingsley's acclaimed, foul-mouthed performance in Sexy Beast, which has been a favorite in this category since the film's initial release. Still, the safe money (and for once, MY money) is on McKellan, who has been passed over by the Academy in the past, and gave what is probably his best film performance to date in the most popular film of the year.

Best Supporting Actress:

1. Jennifer Connelly, A Beautiful Mind
2. Dame Maggie Smith, Gosford Park
3. Marisa Tomei, In the Bedroom
4. Helen Mirren, Gosford Park
5. Kate Winslet, Iris

Winslet's performance was dwarfed by Dench's, as the same character no less, and is a long shot, again as a result of the film's low visibility. Mirren gave a great performance in Gosford Park, but it was a small performance with fewer great lines than Maggie Smith's. What's more, Mirren doesn't like to compete for acting accolades and hasn't campaigned at all for the award. Tomei isn't an entirely unlikely choice - she has won before and gives her best performance in a long time in this film. Besides, the Academy might like to reward her again just to quell the rumors that she didn't actually win for My Cousin Vinny - a second award might prove she really has the acting chops. More likely, however, is Dame Maggie Smith for Gosford Park. Her role was one of the largest and most memorable in a film made up of very small, often unmemorable parts, has won twice before (in 1970 and 1979), and had a great year in 2001 with roles both in Park and Harry Potter.

Still, if there is one sure thing this year (though, in all fairness, there may not be), it's Jennifer Connelly for this award. It's a great performance in a great film from a great, previously unappreciated young actress. It worked for Angelina Jolie, it will almost certainly work for Jennifer, too.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

1. A Beautiful Mind, Akiva Goldsman
2. The Lord of the Rings, Frances Walsh, Philippa Boyens, Peter Jackson
3. In the Bedroom, Todd Field, Robert Festinger
4. Shrek, Ted Elliot, Terry Rossio, Joe Stillman, Roger S.H. Schulman
5. Ghost World, Daniel Clowes, Terry Zwigoff

Ghost World, we hardly knew ye. An unappreciated film with great performances (the Steve Buscemi snub particularly pains me), and a fantastic script which will NOT win due to its somber nature and, and I REALLY hate to say this, it's based upon a comic book. Hopefully next year's The Road to Perdition will have a better chance. Shrek is not an unlikely choice, but it really is almost too clever for its own good, and really does wallow in clichés - it will almost certainly win for Best Animated Film, and this is really its reward. In the Bedroom is popular art house film, but the script itself is very quiet and doesn't stand out at all - odds are that most non-screenwriters in the Academy wouldn't vote for it. The Lord of the Rings is an impressive effort, and faithfully adapts a classic in a way that pleased almost everyone in the world, whether they read it or not. It has a good chance, but the clear favorite here is A Beautiful Mind. It's a script that follows all of the Hollywood rules of screenwriting, perfectly, stands out as excellent and was the blueprint for an excellent film. While there is a small possibility that the backlash over Mind's accuracy could hurt its chances, leaving room for either LOTR or Bedroom, this really is the pony to back.

Best Original Screenplay:

1. Memento, Christopher Nolan, Jonathon Nolan
2. Gosford Park, Julian Fellowes
3. Monster's Ball, Milo Addica, Will Rokos
4. Amelie, Guillaume Laurant, Jean-Pierre Jeunet
5. The Royal Tenenbaums, Wes Anderson, Owen Wilson

The Royal Tenenbaums, to be honest, is my favorite script of the lot, here, but nonetheless is the most unlikely, due to its lack of other nominations and general quirkiness. Amelie has similar odds, being only slightly more likely due to the film's large fan base. Also, a foreign film hasn't won a screenplay Oscar in several decades. Monster's Ball is not too bad a bet, but doesn't stand out as much as the other two nominees, between whom it is more or less a two-script race. Gosford Park is an underdog story of sorts, being written by a struggling actor and turned into a multiple-Academy Award nominated film, but the script is far too cumbersome in my opinion to draw too many votes. It has a chance, but less so against the clever, flashy screenplay for Memento, whose odds are increased due to the considerable ire raised over its snubs for Best Picture, Director and Actor. The safe money is on Memento, but choose carefully...

Best Animated Feature:

1. Shrek
2. Monsters, Inc.
3. Jimmy Neutron, Boy Genius

Why Jimmy Neutron is nominated is beyond me. At least it wasn't a Rugrats film or something. Anyway, this category has no history to speak of so one can only judge the winner based upon buzz and merits. The buzz has it that Shrek will take the gold, but then the actual quality of Monsters, Inc. is superior to its competition, and furthermore it is not hopelessly inured in today's pop culture - fifty years from now, it will have seemed like a wiser choice. Every year I allow myself two or three predictions based upon who I feel deserves the award - this year, Wilkinson and Monsters, Inc. are them.

But Shrek is probably gonna win.

Best Art Direction/Set Direction:

1. The Lord of the Rings
2. Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone
3. Moulin Rouge!
4. Amelie
5. Gosford Park

Wait a minute, there were set designers for Gosford Park? I could show you any number of houses in NEW England that look just like the one they used - something tells me there are plenty just like them in honest-to-GOD-England. I'm unimpressed, and voters, I assure you, aren't impressed either. Amelie's art design is actually very impressive (like the snubbed Royal Tenenbaums), but is too slight to be recognized by the Academy, especially when up against the other three candidates. Moulin Rouge! has a shot here, but the sets in Harry Potter and LOTR are much more memorable characters in their respective films. The magical Lothlorien will probably win out over the (actually more impressive, in my opinion) Hogwarts, but unless there is a major sweep this category is fairly open. My money is on LOTR, but I hope Harry Potter wins instead.

Best Costume Design:

1. Moulin Rouge!
2. The Lord of the Rings
3. Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone
4. The Affair of the Necklace
5. Gosford Park

Parkhas not a prayer against flashier fare. Yeah, that rhymed. I'm cool like that. The Affair of the Necklace doesn't have any other nominations, which wouldn't have mattered if the costumes were THAT impressive (Priscilla, Queen of the Desert, anyone?), but since they were not, the nomination is again the reward. The costumes in Potter were fitting, but didn't stand out as much as in Rouge! and LOTR. Even if there is a sweep, however, I think Rouge! is going to get this - it combines the outlandish gaudiness the Academy loves to reward (Priscilla, Restoration) with the historical context they love to reward even more (Gladiator, Titanic). LOTR has a shot here, but it probably doesn't have enough frills to be the lead competitor.

Best Make-Up:

1. The Lord of the Rings
2. A Beautiful Mind
3. Moulin Rouge!

There wasn't much make-up at all in Rouge, and the age make-up in Mind has been done before. Be honest. The Lord of the Rings is the clear winner in this category, but only because neither A.I. (for shame... ) nor Planet of the Apes (for fucking shame... ) were nominated. What's up with that, Academy?

Best Sound:

1. The Lord of the Rings
2. Black Hawk Down
3. Pearl Harbor
4. Moulin Rouge!
5. Amelie

I'm willing to be that most of the voters have no idea what they're rewarding in this category - both sound categories, for that matter. More so than Sound Effects Editing, however, this award is pretty much for the film that just sounds best. Amelie did not, Moulin Rouge! did not. They both sound great, but not when compared to the sound in their competitor's action sequences. Pearl Harbor is impressive, to be sure, but I think people are going to want to reward this film as little as possible. Black Hawk Down SHOULD win, God knows, but LOTR is almost definitely going to take this in a sweep, regardless of said sweep's size.

Best Sound Effects Editing:

1. Pearl Harbor
2. Monsters, Inc.

Okay, this award is one that confuses people. This award is for the best sound engineered from scratch - the noises the dinosaurs made in Jurassic Park, for example, could not be found in real life, and therefore had to be engineered. The title is confusing, but that's what this means. Pearl Harbor is actually less impressive in this regard than Monsters, Inc., but I think that most people won't recognize the more subtle work as superior. Loud wins this award, so Pearl Harbor, though it may pain many, is actually the best bet here.

Best Visual Effects:

1. The Lord of the Rings
2. A.I. Artificial Intelligence
3. Pearl Harbor

This is another category in which the Academy rarely seems to know what they're talking about, picking the obvious CGI of Titanic over the infinitely more impressive combination of CG, models and stop-motion in Starship Troopers, for example. Or the clunky UFOs of Independence Day over the fluid, ingeniously rendered Draco in Dragonheart. If there was justice in the world, A.I. would win. It really would. (Pearl Harbor? Puh-lease... ) And it has a shot, but odds are LOTR will take this in a sweep. It's a great choice, but still not as impressive as the latest Spielberg opus.

Best Editing:

1. Memento
2. The Lord of the Rings
3. Black Hawk Down
4. Moulin Rouge!
5. A Beautiful Mind

Again, here we have a category in which the winner usually stands out the most. Mind doesn't stand out, and Rouge!, while good, does not impress as much as the rest of the competition. Black Hawk Down probably should win, and LOTR is equally technically impressive, but Memento probably is a lock. The elliptical story structure was not really helped that much by its editing (the decision to play the film backwards was not made in the editing room, after all), but it sure as hell seems like it, and the Academy will probably reward it as such.

Best Cinematography:

1. The Lord of the Rings
2. Black Hawk Down
3. Moulin Rouge!
4. Amelie
5. The Man Who Wasn't There

Sweeping vistas? Check. Massive crowd scenes? Check. Warfare? Check. LOTR is going to take this. Black Hawk Down comes close because it has all of this but the sweeping vistas. Moulin Rouge! is one pretty film, with lots of visual dervishes, but comes a distant third. Amelie and The Man Who Wasn't There are gorgeous, and probably feature the best cinematography of the lot, but are too small scale to be recognized as such.

Best Original Score:

1. The Lord of the Rings
2. Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone
3. A Beautiful Mind
4. Monsters, Inc.
5. A.I. Artificial Intelligence

Actually, this is a really good year for this category. A.I. won't win, if for no other reason than that it's the lesser Williams score on this list. Monsters is also a long shot, though an excellent score, due primarily to it lacking the emotional weight of its competitors. The score for A Beautiful Mind is probably my favorite of the lot, but doesn't have a booming horn section playing against battle sequences, so it stays solidly in third place. Harry Potter is a great score, and contains Williams' best anthem since Jurassic Park, but Howard Shore's LOTR score is more pervasive and flows better with the storyline. Look for another Ringer here.

Best Original Song:

1. "Vanilla Sky," Vanilla Sky
2. "May It Be," The Lord of the Rings
3. "If I Didn't Have You," Monsters, Inc.
4. "Until," Kate and Leopold
5. "There You'll Be," Pearl Harbor

Here's a rarity this year - an award in which LOTR is not only NOT the frontrunner, but is actually pretty damned unlikely. True, it's still second on the list of probable winners, but it's so far behind number one that it's almost kind of sad. McCartney's "Vanilla Sky" is a great song, fits in with the film, works on its own, and will win. "May It Be" fits in with LOTR, and sits in second place, but doesn't work well enough on its own to really be a major contender. Randy Newman is number three because, well, he's Randy Newman. It wouldn't be a Best Song category without him. "Until" is only number four because Pearl Harbor doesn't have a chance in hell.

I abstain from the Short Film, Documentary and Foreign Film categories, having seen decidedly few of all the nominees - really, anyone's guess is as good as mine. Remember to watch the Academy Awards this Sunday, and to play along here at TNMC.