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TNMC Oscar Nomination Prediction Results
Hollyfeld, here. Well, the results are in for our annual TNMC Oscar Nomination Predictions, and it was a squeaker. But, thank God, Hollyfeld wins, 28 accurate predictions to his 25. The loser (John "Batman" Shea) has to watch (ugh) The English Patient and review it for a future column. I almost pity the poor bastard, or at least I would if I wasn't so relieved that I don't have to sit through that piece of Oscar-winning shit again.
Back to business. Eight categories predicted, with five nominations apiece, and out of these forty nominees we both predicted accurately a little more than 50%. Let's look at some of the nominees and how, specifically, John and I fared.
Best Actor in a Leading Role:
Russell Crowe, A Beautiful Mind
Sean Penn, I Am Sam
Will Smith, Ali
Denzel Washington, Training Day
Tom Wilkinson, In the Bedroom
John and I both did pretty well in this category, getting four out of five nominations right apiece. Only somewhat surprising is the omission of Gene Hackman from the nominees, since comedy rarely goes rewarded in this acting category especially (Best Actress, for example, seems to have a slightly better track record in this regard). On a personal note, and I never thought I would say this, Sean Penn really does not deserve this nomination, especially when one considers the fine performances of Hackman, Tom Cruise and Guy Pearce, amongst others, this year. Fun Fact: This is the first year in Academy history in which two black actors are up for this award. Isn't that nice?
Best Actress in a Leading Role:
Halle Berry, Monster's Ball
Dame Judi Dench, Iris
Nicole Kidman, Moulin Rouge!
Sissy Spacek, In the Bedroom
Renee Zellweger, Bridget Jones's Diary
See, if you will, the two largely comedic performances nominated in this category, as opposed to the uber-serious Best Actor nominees. I only got two nominees right in this category (I count my prediction for Kidman's performance in The Others as wrong), to John's four. John correctly predicted Renee Zellweger's nomination for Bridget Jones's Diary, which was quite a coup for the actress considering the length of time since the film's release as well as its lighter nature. The biggest news, though, is the absence of Naomi Watt's name - her performance in Mulholland Drive may have been too good for the stodgy academy. Damn. I happen to have seen rather few nominees in this category, so I will keep my more subjective opinions to myself.
Best Writing, Original Screenplay:
Amelie
Gosford Park
Memento
Monster's Ball
The Royal Tenenbaums
The absence of The Man Who Wasn't There is perhaps the only real surprise here, although it should be a relief to some that Memento was indeed remembered for something (it was also rightfully remembered in the Best Editing category). John beat me 4-3 in this category. I haven't seen Monster's Ball, but in regards to the rest of the nominees, which I have seen, I can say it is nice to see some scripts with complexity to them up for the award. The Royal Tenenbaums, in particular, was a choice I did not hold out much hope for, but here it is, making me happy and stuff.
Best Writing, Adapted Screenplay:
A Beautiful Mind
Ghost World
In the Bedroom
The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring
Shrek
I cleaned up in this category, whupping John's four correct predictions with a clean sweep. Nice. Especially nice are the nominations here, for although excellent scripts like Black Hawk Down and The Shipping News are absent (the latter completely so from any category), everything up here genuinely seems to deserve a nod. Especially pleasant to see are The Lord of the Rings and Ghost World, one an excellent epic and the other perhaps the best independent American film of the year (and otherwise shamefully snubbed). Although I honestly think LOTR and Mind are the strongest choices here, it would still be nice to see a film based on a comic book when an Oscar. I only wish that From Hell would have been good enough to warrant a nomination as well. Next year brings with it The Road to Perdition, however, so they may be another opportunity for a comic win soon enough.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role:
Jim Broadbent, Iris
Ethan Hawke, Training Day
Ben Kingsley, Sexy Beast
Sir Ian McKellan, The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring
Jon Voight, Ali
This is a "What the Fuck" category - no Steve Buscemi? It's rigged. Ethan Hawke? That one came out of left field, but actually I'm happy about it. He deserves the nomination, perhaps not as much as others, but he's a good actor who did a great job and deserves recognition. I'm just surprised someone even noticed him alongside Denzel. Good for the Academy. Both John and I feared this category, realizing that it was almost completely up for grabs - we were right to do so, as I beat him with a paltry 3 to 1. Sir Ian McKellan is the early frontrunner, and I think everyone hopes that he will take home the gold.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role:
Jennifer Connelly, A Beautiful Mind
Helen Mirren, Gosford Park
Dame Maggie Smith, Gosford Park
Marisa Tomei, In the Bedroom
Kate Winslet, Iris
The potential nominees for this category were a small bunch, but still John and I fucked it up, me beating him with a crappy 3-1. No real surprises here, although I am disappointed at the lack of nominations for either Cameron Diaz or Cate Blanchett. Look for Connelly once again to take home a trophy, unless Tomei goes nuts campaigning for it.
Best Director:
Robert Altman, Gosford Park
Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind
Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring
David Lynch, Mulholland Drive
Ridley Scott, Black Hawk Down
John and I tied with four accurate predictions apiece, here, although I was right when I predicted that only three nominees would match the Best Picture noms. I'm glad Scott and Lynch were nominated, and ultimately have no complaints. This is thus far the only category in which I have seen all of the nominees, though... this grievance will hopefully be remedied in time for the telecast. Peter Jackson should win; unless voters decide either Ron Howard or Robert Altman deserve credit for doing their smaller, "artier" films.
Best Picture:
A Beautiful Mind
Gosford Park
In the Bedroom
The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring
Moulin Rouge!
I beat John 4-3 here, although we both incorrectly assumed the awesome Black Hawk Down would be nominated. I think we'll both be pissed about that for some time. Both In the Bedroom and Moulin Rouge!, however, are ostensibly out of the running due to their lack of nomination for Best Director. Look for Lord of the Rings to take home the gold, largely because the film with the most nominations (13 in this case) almost always wins.
And now, a look at a few other notable categories:
Best Animated Feature:
Jimmy Neutron: Boy Genius
Monsters, Inc.
Shrek
The first time this award is featured, and Jimmy Neutron gets nominated? What the fuck is going on? Did no one see Waking Life or Final Fantasy: The Spirits Within? It's this kind of American stigmatism that keeps animated films from being a viable art form for adults. Son of a bitch...
Best Make-Up:
A Beautiful Mind
The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring
Moulin Rouge!
Where the fuck was the make-up in Moulin Rouge? And don't give me that crap about "it was so good it was invisible," especially when possibly the best make-up work in the history of cinema was done this year in Tim Burton's Planet of the Apes. Or even when A.I. did such an astounding job in somewhat subtler effects work. I love Moulin Rouge! with all my heart, but this really sucks.
Best Visual Effects:
A.I. Artificial Intelligence
The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring
Pearl Harbor
I am actually glad that Pearl Harbor got a nomination, if you can believe that. Though the work in Harry Potter was delightful, didn't it really look like they were bombing the shit out of us on the screen? Kewl...
That's about all I have to say - lots of unpleasant surprises (no Buscemi, Watts, Hackman, Pearce, Apes, Life or Fantasy, to begin with alone), only one pleasant one coming to mind (Hawke's remembrance). We'll be back in March with official predictions about who, in fact, will win. See you there.
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